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While world leaders assemble in Brazil for Cop30, it is crucial to review how we are faring together in lowering worldwide emissions of greenhouse gases.

Despite three decades of United Nations climate conferences, approximately half of the carbon dioxide accumulated in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution has been released after the year 1990. Coincidentally, 1990 was the publication of the First Assessment Report by the IPCC, which confirmed the threat of human-caused global warming. While researchers work on the Seventh Assessment Report, they do so knowing that their work remains eclipsed by political agendas. Despite sincere attempts, the world is still far from the path to prevent catastrophic climate change.

Record-Breaking CO₂ Levels and Carbon-Based Fuel Dependency

Recent data show that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels hit a new peak of 423.9 parts per million in 2024, with the increase rate from the previous year jumping by the largest yearly increase since modern measurements began in 1957. Based on the Global Carbon Project, 90% of total global CO₂ emissions in last year originated from burning fossil fuels, while the other tenth resulted from land-use changes such as forest clearance and wildfires.

While the rise in fossil CO₂ emissions in 2024 was propelled by higher use of natural gas and petroleum—representing more than 50% of worldwide discharges—the use of coal also attained a historic peak, constituting 41%. Despite Cop28’s global stocktake calling for nations to transition away from carbon fuels, global strategies still aim to extract over twice the quantity of hydrocarbons in 2030 than is consistent with keeping planet heating to 1.5C, with continued extraction of natural gas justified as a lower emission transition fuel.

The Mirage of Nature-Based Solutions

Rather than concentrating on economic incentives to accelerate the elimination of carbon fuels, environmental strategies are heavily reliant on feel-good eco-positive solutions that seek to neutralize carbon emissions by afforestation instead of reducing industrial emissions. While conserving, enlarging, and rehabilitating natural carbon sinks like forests and marshes is inherently good, studies has demonstrated that there is not enough land to achieve the global goal of net zero emissions using nature-based solutions by themselves.

Approximately 1 billion hectares—a territory larger than the United States of America—is required to meet carbon neutrality commitments. More than 40% of this land would need to be converted from existing uses like agriculture to carbon capture initiatives by 2060 at an never-before-seen pace.

Even if this ideal restoration could be realized, woodlands take time to mature and can burn down, so they cannot be considered as a fast or permanent carbon storage solution, especially in a rapidly shifting environment. While severe temperatures and aridity affect larger regions, these sincere attempts could literally be destroyed by fire.

The Weakening of Planetary Absorbers

Research data indicates that about 50% of the total CO₂ emitted annually remains in the atmosphere, while the remainder is taken up by oceans and terrestrial systems. As the planet warms, these natural carbon sinks are losing efficiency at soaking up CO₂, which means that more carbon builds up in the atmosphere, intensifying climate change. Shifting the reduction responsibility onto the agricultural and forest sectors simply relieves the oil and gas sector from the pressure to cut pollution any time soon.

The Carbon Debt and Future Generations

Reaching net zero by 2050 requires CO2 extraction (CDR), which currently relies almost exclusively on terrestrial methods to absorb excess carbon from the air. Emitting companies can simply buy carbon credits to compensate for their discharges and continue with business as usual. At the same time, the planetary heat imbalance caused by the combustion of hydrocarbons continues to further destabilise the Earth’s climate. Essentially, we are adding more carbon debt to our planetary credit card, passing on our descendants with an insurmountable burden.

To curb the magnitude and length of exceeding the global warming targets, the world ultimately needs to go well beyond the balancing impact of carbon neutrality and begin to remove cumulative historical emissions to reach net negative emissions.

The Policy Misrepresentation of Net Zero

According to the latest numbers from the Global Carbon Project, plant-based carbon removal is currently capturing the equal of about 5% of yearly CO2 from fuels, while engineered carbon extraction represents only about a tiny fraction of the CO2 emitted from carbon sources. More generous sector projections place it at around zero point one percent of total global emissions. At the risk of sounding like a heretic, the political distortion of carbon neutrality is an insidious loophole that takes focus away from the scientific imperative to eliminate the primary cause of our overheating planet—carbon-based energy.

The Critical Requirement for Concrete Action

While this scientific reality should dominate talks at the climate summit, history suggests that gradual, cautious steps and deference to politics will win out. Ambiguous promises of long-term goals will keep on postpone the pressing requirement for concrete immediate action. Until leaders have the courage to implement carbon pricing to terminate the age of hydrocarbons, we are releasing more and more carbon to the air, compounding the environmental disaster now unfolding all around us.

The challenge we confront is simple: take real action to the scientific reality of our crisis or suffer the results of this profound moral failure for generations ahead.