Netherlands Elections: Major Parties and Main Issues in Early Election
Citizens in the Netherlands are preparing to possibly exchange the most conservative government in recent memory with a more centrist and commonsense alliance during early general elections scheduled for 29 October.
The Situation and Why It Matters
Early legislative elections were triggered after the breakdown of the outgoing government in the summer, when rightwing figure the Freedom party leader pulled his PVV from an increasingly fractious and highly ineffectual ruling coalition.
Wilders' party had finished shockingly first in the 2023 election, and after prolonged talks established a fragile four-party conservative alliance with the populist Farmer-Citizen Movement, centrist New Social Contract and liberal-conservative VVD.
However, Wilders' coalition partners deemed him too controversial for the premier position, which was given to a former intelligence chief. Wilders, an immigration-skeptic commentator who has required security detail for two decades, resorted to sniping from outside government.
Wilders finally caused the coalition breakup on June 3 after his partners refused to implement a far-reaching comprehensive anti-immigration plan that included deploying the army to guard frontiers, turning back all refugee applicants, shutting down asylum centers and repatriating all Syrian refugees.
Although backing of the PVV has declined, surveys suggest the far-right, anti-Islam party is once more projected to win the most seats in parliament. However, main Dutch political parties have all ruled out entering a formal coalition with Wilders.
At least sixteen political groups are forecast to enter parliament, but none is expected to secure above approximately 20% of the vote. Typically, the next Dutch government, typically an influential player on the EU and world stage, will emerge only after coalition negotiations that could take several months.
How the System Works and Party Environment
There are 150 representatives in the Netherlands legislature, meaning a administration requires 76 seats to form a majority. No individual group ever manages this, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions for more than a century.
Representatives are chosen quadrennially – earlier if governments collapse – through party-list system, based on an certified roster of candidates in a single, nationwide constituency: any party that wins less than 1% of the vote is assured of a seat.
Similar to much of Europe, Netherlands political life have been characterized in recent decades by a significant drop in support for the traditional governing groups from the centre-right and left, whose electoral support has shrunk from more than 80% in the 1980s to just over 40% now.
Domestically, this process has been paralleled by a remarkable multiplication of smaller parties: twenty-seven are competing this time, including a senior citizens' party, a party for youth, a animal rights party, a party for universal basic income, and a party for sport.
Key Players and Main Issues
In the lead is Wilders' PVV, projected to drop as many as eight of the 37 seats it secured last election. It proposes, among other policies, a complete freeze on asylum, Ukrainian men to be sent home, the army to fight "street terrorists", and an end to "woke indoctrination" in schools.
Two parties, of the moderate right and left, are neck-and-neck after the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) led Netherlands government from the end of the seventies to the early 90s, and once more in the early 2000s, but dropped to just five seats in the last election.
Nevertheless, under Henri Bontenbal, its youthful rising star, who entered politics just recently, the party has recovered strongly with a campaign emphasizing the severe Netherlands housing shortage and a commitment of "normal, civilised politics". It is on course for up to twenty-six mandates.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an electoral alliance between the green party and the established social democratic party that is anticipated to become a complete unification, is on track to win a similar number, according to polling averages.
Headed by the experienced ex-EU official its leader, it has made constructing additional housing its primary focus, and has debatedly proposed a net migration cap of between forty to sixty thousand people a year in its manifesto.
Three additional groups appear set to be important players in the next legislature.
The liberal-progressive D66 is projected to gain seats – securing as many as seventeen, from its present nine – under its straight-talking young leader, with a campaign centred on residential construction (it proposes to build 10 new cities) and an "individual basic benefit" for recipients.
The liberal-conservative VVD, the party of the ex-premier (now Nato chief), is forecast to decline to no more than sixteen mandates from its present twenty-four, with its leader, accused of taking the party too far to the right, blamed for its decline. It is promising business tax cuts and reduced social benefits.
The populist, strictly rightwing JA21 is a spin-off from another far-right party – the previously successful, now scandal-hit Forum for Democracy – and appears to be profiting from an exodus of voters from the three major rightwing parties. It could win up to 14 seats.
In addition to the VVD and PVV, both remaining members in the ill-fated previous government, the farmer and centrist parties, are projected to lose out, with the centrist party not even guaranteed representation in parliament.
The primary concerns currently have been migration policy, with multiple – sometimes violent – protests against proposed asylum facilities for asylum seekers, the cost of living, and the perennial Dutch problem of accommodation (the nation is lacking four hundred thousand residences).
Potential New Government
Given the highly fragmented state of Netherlands political landscape, what coalitions are feasible is just as important as who wins the election (or in this case, more likely second, since no major party will partner with Wilders, who maintains he intends to head a minority administration).
Following the vote, MPs first appoint an informateur, who explores potential partnerships. Once a viable coalition has been identified, a formateur, usually the head of the largest potential partner, begins negotiating the government program. This often requires months.
Multiple options look plausible, most involving a mix of political groups from centre left and moderate right. The most likely, according to coalition experts, include CDA and GL/PvdA, plus D66 and several minor groups possibly incorporating JA21.
