Why Is The Current US Shutdown Distinct (and More Intractable)?
Government closures have become a recurring element in American political life – but the current situation appears especially difficult to resolve due to political dynamics along with bad blood among both major parties.
Certain federal operations face a temporary halt, with approximately 750,000 people likely to be placed on unpaid leave since Republicans and Democrats remain unable to reach consensus on a spending bill.
Legislative attempts to resolve the deadlock continue to fall short, and it is hard to see an off-ramp in this instance as each side – including the President – perceive advantages in digging in.
These are several key factors that make this shutdown distinct currently.
First, For Democrats, it's about Trump – not just healthcare
Democratic supporters has been demanding for months for their representatives adopt stronger opposition against the Trump administration. Currently the party leadership have an opportunity to show they have listened.
In March, the Senate's top Democrat was fiercely criticised after supporting GOP budget legislation and averting a shutdown in the spring. This time he's holding firm.
This is a chance for the Democratic party to show their ability to reclaim some control from an administration that has moved aggressively with determined action.
Refusing to back the GOP budget proposal carries electoral dangers that the wider public will grow frustrated as the dispute drags on and impacts accumulate.
The Democrats are using the shutdown fight to highlight concerns about expiring health insurance subsidies and GOP-backed federal health program reductions for the poor, which are both unpopular.
They are also trying to curtail the President's use of his executive powers to rescind or withhold money authorized legislatively, which he has done in international assistance and various federal programs.
Second, For Republicans, it's an opportunity
The President and one of his key officials have openly indicated their perspective that they perceive an opening to advance further the cutbacks to the federal workforce that have featured the current presidential term to date.
The nation's leader personally said last week that the government closure had afforded him a "unique chance", adding he intended to reduce funding for "opposition-supported departments".
The White House stated they would face the "unenviable task" involving significant workforce reductions to maintain critical federal operations if the shutdown continued. The Press Secretary described this as "budgetary responsibility".
The scope of the potential lay-offs is still uncertain, but the White House have been consulting with the Office of Management and Budget, or OMB, under the leadership of the administration's budget director.
The budget director has previously declared the suspension of federal funding for regions governed by the opposition party, such as NYC and Chicago.
Third, Trust Is Lacking between both parties
Whereas past government closures typically involved extended negotiations between the two parties aimed at restoring government services running again, currently there seems minimal cooperative willingness for compromise presently.
Conversely, there is rancour. The bad blood continued over the weekend, as both sides exchanging accusations for causing the impasse.
House Speaker a Republican, charged opposition members of not being serious about negotiating, and maintaining positions during discussions "to get political cover".
Meanwhile, the Senate leader made similar charges at the other side, saying that a majority party commitment to discuss healthcare subsidies after operations resume can not be taken seriously.
The administration leader personally has inflamed the situation by posting a computer-created controversial depiction featuring the opposition leader and the top Democrat in the House, where the legislator is depicted with traditional headwear and facial hair.
The representative and other Democrats denounced this as discriminatory, a characterization rejected by the Vice-President.
4. The US economy is fragile
Experts project approximately two-fifths of government employees – more than 800,000 people – to face furlough as a result of the shutdown.
This will reduce consumer expenditure – with broader economic consequences, as environmental permitting, delayed intellectual property processing, payments to contractors and other kinds of federal operations tied to business cease functioning.
A shutdown also injects fresh instability within economic systems currently experiencing disruption from multiple factors including tariffs, previous budget reductions, immigration raids and artificial intelligence.
Economic forecasters project that it could shave as much as 0.2 percentage points from national economic expansion weekly during the closure.
But the economy typically recoups the majority of interrupted operations after a shutdown ends, similar to recovery patterns after major environmental events.
This might explain partially why the stock market has appeared largely unfazed by the current stand-off.
Conversely, experts indicate that if administration officials implement his threat of mass firings, the damage could be more long-lasting.